Growth Expected in 2023: Economic Outlook

The St. John’s economy is expected to grow in 2023, according to the latest Economic Outlook report released by the City. Construction-related activity associated with the West White Rose project will ramp up and rising population levels will benefit businesses in the region’s service sector.  

Most economic indicators are expected to post increases in the St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). 

• Economic growth as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is anticipated to increase by 0.8.
• Excluding the oil & gas sector, the economy is expected to increase 1.5%.
• Retail sales growth, at 5.0% is projected to continue 
• Labour force participation is expected to fall by 0.9 percentage points.

 “The population of the St. John’s CMA is expected to grow to 224,000 persons, an increase of 2.2% over 2022,” said Mayor Breen, council lead for Economic Development. “Employment is forecast to increase 1.5%, with the unemployment rate projected to reach a 49-year low.” 

Households experienced robust income growth last year, with incomes increasing 12.2%. This is expected to continue in 2023, with a predicted 6% increase by year end, largely driven by higher wages. Inflation is also expected to fall to 3.7% as lower oil prices and high interest rates enacted by the Bank of Canada slowly return inflation towards its 2% target.

Housing starts are expected to decrease 1.2% as higher interest rates are expected to limit the demand for new housing.   

The Economic Outlook report also provides a summary of the final 2022 economic indicators for the St. John’s CMA. 

Economic Outlook 2023 provides data on several economic indicators for the St. John's CMA including: GDP, labour market, household income, retail sales, housing starts, and population. It is prepared by the provincial Department of Finance and is available on the City’s website. 

Note: The St. John’s CMA is a Statistics Canada geographically defined area including St. John’s and neighbouring communities. Data prepared by Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance (Economics Division) and the City of St. John's Department of Community Services (Economic Development, Culture and Partnerships Division). 

Economic Development, Culture and Partnerships Division provides a variety of economic and statistical information, including an Economic Review/Outlook twice a year in addition to a monthly Economic Snapshot. These reports and additional data can be found in the business and investment section at www.StJohns.ca.   

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